GROWTH POLICY UPDATE.  CANDI MILLAR, DIRECTOR, PLANNING & COMMUNITY SERVICES DEPT:  How the city grows and where it grows have significant consequences for existing and future residents and business.  If growth is restricted to our current city limits, is there enough land for housing and businesses to serve an increasing population?  If growth was allowed to continue westward and northward, will we have enough resources to serve and maintain the outlying development?  What about the needs of current and future residents?  The average age of our population has increased; from 36.8 in 2000 to 37.5 in 2010, but more importantly the population in general is aging.  The largest population cohorts in Billings are the millennials, age 20 – 35, and the late baby boomers, age 45 – 65.  These two generations will drive what types of public services and facilities are needed in the future. (see attached population pyramid).

The future needs of our businesses and residents are why the City-County Planning Division has embarked on an ambitious 2-year process to plan for Billings.  The plan has been branded, “BillingsBeyond!”, because it looks beyond the needs of current residents and beyond our current boundaries.  Starting in October, 2014, and ending in February, 2015, the Planning Division gave 35 presentations on the current status of many aspects of our city.  The presentation also showed a chart on growth trends.  From 1990 to 2010, Billings grew approximately 1.5% per year.  Since 2010, Billings has grown closer to 4% per year.  If the population were to continue to grow at 1.5%, approximately 10,000 more people would be added by 2035.  A slightly higher growth rate of 2.0% would add about 70,000 people.  At a 3.0% annual growth rate, the City of Billings would exceed a quarter million people in 20 years (see attached population growth chart).

The participants at each presentation were asked two questions:  How do you want Billings to grow, and where do you want Billings to grow?  From over 1,200 responses, the how’s could easily be grouped into six categories.   The planners evaluated the responses and developed goals for each category: 

ESSENTIAL INVESTMENTS:  Spend money wisely and on those things that would improve our quality of life.
PLACEMAKERS:  Preserve and enhance our important public buildings and spaces.
COMMUNITY FABRIC:  An attractive and well-designed City.
STRONG NEIGHBORHOODS:  Clean and safe neighborhoods that meet our essential daily needs.
HOME BASE:  A choice of housing types and sufficient supply of affordable housing.
MOBILITY AND ACCESS:  The transportation system is designed to be safer and more efficient for all users.

Interestingly, the economy and jobs were not raised as issues.  However, they were very important issues back in 2003 and 2008 when the last versions of the Growth Policy were updated.  This is a good indication that the current economy is fairly stable and people are comfortable with the levels of employment.

The answer to the question of where we grow needed little interpretation.  Three geographical areas emerged as primary directions: stay within our existing boundaries (infill), grow north (Inner Belt Loop area) and grow west.  There were some very specific locations like EBURD, SBBURD, along Shiloh Road, downtown, etc., but there were no comments suggesting to cross the river to the south which helps frame our potential growth area.

The identified growth areas will provide the next element of the planning effort; growth scenarios.  Scenario planning entails comparing the consequences of developing in different areas to determine which scenario offers the best outcomes in terms of revenue generated, costs incurred and goals achieved.  While no one scenario may meet everyone’s desires and be most cost-effective, the exercise will help reveal what factors of the scenarios are responsible for driving costs and affecting the values stated in the goals.  The intent of the scenario analysis is to determine if our current pattern of growth and infrastructure investments can be modified to achieve the desired outcomes.
The planning effort will continue through June, 2016.  The Planning Division staff values all input from the public, including City employees, advisory boards and elected officials.

The Billings growth plan may be used by elected officials and city departments to help guide them in making infrastructure investments.

No recommendation at this time is needed as this is an update on the progress of developing the 1015-2016 Growth Policy.