4.
City Council Combined Special Meeting/Work Session
- Meeting Date:
- 10/23/2025
- Co-Submitter:
- Lee Williams
- From:
- Erin Young, Water Services Section Director - Water Resource Management
TITLE
Exploring a Regional Water Supply for Flagstaff and Partners: Presentation by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR)
STAFF RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Discussion
Executive Summary:
There are many advantages to the City and regional water users to participate in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (BOR) facilitated federal water resource planning process. The investigations are federally funded with cost-share by participants. If there is a determination by BOR in an Appraisal Level study that there is a federal objective, such as a federal trust responsibility, it would enable additional opportunities for further Regional Project analysis and project funding. For example, partnering with regional stakeholders in a federal planning process can identify and establish economies of scale to distribute capital repayment, operation, maintenance and replacement costs, compliance with applicable laws, federal assistance, and provide for associated water management.
The City’s most recent water demand analysis in 2025 concluded that the shortfall was estimated to range between 9,100 AFY to upwards of 12,000 AFY while incorporating resiliency and redundancy into the analysis. The City's current surface water system is highly drought sensitive, and water production yields within the City's existing groundwater wellfields are declining. The City is at 98% risk of wildfire of cities nationwide (wildfirerisk.org), and 76% of the City's drinking water infrastructure is sourced from forested terrain. Resiliency and redundancy in water resources, as well as securing water to meet the community's build-out water demands, are the primary drivers for exploring water security solutions.
In response to a request for technical assistance from the City to develop water supplies, BOR engaged with Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation in a federal Value Planning Study in July, 2025. The Value Planning study was conducted through participation in a week-long workshop by technical staff from the City's Water Services and Sustainability divisions and consultants, as well as staff from the Navajo Nation. Reclamation's Value Planning process incorporates decades of regional investigations that were used to identify alternatives and the most appropriate and highest-value solutions for participating partners. The BOR’s Value Planning study is not a decision-making document, but is designed to identify next steps and alternatives to be evaluated during a larger Appraisal Level study that engages stakeholders and the public.
The City’s most recent water demand analysis in 2025 concluded that the shortfall was estimated to range between 9,100 AFY to upwards of 12,000 AFY while incorporating resiliency and redundancy into the analysis. The City's current surface water system is highly drought sensitive, and water production yields within the City's existing groundwater wellfields are declining. The City is at 98% risk of wildfire of cities nationwide (wildfirerisk.org), and 76% of the City's drinking water infrastructure is sourced from forested terrain. Resiliency and redundancy in water resources, as well as securing water to meet the community's build-out water demands, are the primary drivers for exploring water security solutions.
In response to a request for technical assistance from the City to develop water supplies, BOR engaged with Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation in a federal Value Planning Study in July, 2025. The Value Planning study was conducted through participation in a week-long workshop by technical staff from the City's Water Services and Sustainability divisions and consultants, as well as staff from the Navajo Nation. Reclamation's Value Planning process incorporates decades of regional investigations that were used to identify alternatives and the most appropriate and highest-value solutions for participating partners. The BOR’s Value Planning study is not a decision-making document, but is designed to identify next steps and alternatives to be evaluated during a larger Appraisal Level study that engages stakeholders and the public.
Information:
The City has made significant investments and conducted numerous investigations to evaluate and manage existing water supplies and plan for future needs. Water conservation and reuse alone are not enough to meet future needs and do not address water resiliency and redundancy factors.
The City’s existing water supplies are at risk due to climate variability, wildfires, water resiliency and water security reasons. The extended drought and local wildfires have severely impacted Flagstaff's ability to rely on local surface water supplies to meet existing demands. Yields in existing groundwater wells are declining.
Most of the City's water supply is imported using infrastructure at high risk to catastrophic wildfires and supply interruptions. In 2010 and again in 2022 this became a reality for Flagstaff when fires damaged a portion of Flagstaff's water supply, rendering it inaccessible until the waterline could be repaired. Simply stated, the City and region are one wildfire away from needing the Regional Project online today.
Purchased in 2005 in response to drought and water supply uncertainty, the City's Red Gap Ranch property included two water production wells and approximately 8,500 acres of deeded land checkerboarded with approximately 15,000 acres of grazing lands leased from the Arizona State Lands Department (ASLD). Red Gap Ranch is located approximately 40 miles east of Flagstaff at an elevation that is approximately 2,000-feet lower than the City. In 2011, the City drilled 10 additional municipal wells at Red Gap Ranch for a future water supply. Extensive City, federal, tribal and private groundwater investigations have confirmed the Red Gap Ranch as a suitable regional water supply source in both quantity and quality.
Participation in the BOR water resource planning process does not impede the City in developing additional local water resources. The federal planning process provides opportunities for the City, the Navajo Nation and other regional stakeholders to participate in a comprehensive federally funded water resource investigation. The federal planning process will evaluate federal objectives and address regional water management issues, including but not limited to an analysis of economics, environmental impacts and associated technical evaluations required to develop a preferred regional water supply project plan.
The City’s existing water supplies are at risk due to climate variability, wildfires, water resiliency and water security reasons. The extended drought and local wildfires have severely impacted Flagstaff's ability to rely on local surface water supplies to meet existing demands. Yields in existing groundwater wells are declining.
Most of the City's water supply is imported using infrastructure at high risk to catastrophic wildfires and supply interruptions. In 2010 and again in 2022 this became a reality for Flagstaff when fires damaged a portion of Flagstaff's water supply, rendering it inaccessible until the waterline could be repaired. Simply stated, the City and region are one wildfire away from needing the Regional Project online today.
Purchased in 2005 in response to drought and water supply uncertainty, the City's Red Gap Ranch property included two water production wells and approximately 8,500 acres of deeded land checkerboarded with approximately 15,000 acres of grazing lands leased from the Arizona State Lands Department (ASLD). Red Gap Ranch is located approximately 40 miles east of Flagstaff at an elevation that is approximately 2,000-feet lower than the City. In 2011, the City drilled 10 additional municipal wells at Red Gap Ranch for a future water supply. Extensive City, federal, tribal and private groundwater investigations have confirmed the Red Gap Ranch as a suitable regional water supply source in both quantity and quality.
Participation in the BOR water resource planning process does not impede the City in developing additional local water resources. The federal planning process provides opportunities for the City, the Navajo Nation and other regional stakeholders to participate in a comprehensive federally funded water resource investigation. The federal planning process will evaluate federal objectives and address regional water management issues, including but not limited to an analysis of economics, environmental impacts and associated technical evaluations required to develop a preferred regional water supply project plan.