Staff is seeking direction from City Council on the Carbon Neutrality Plan.

In June 2020 City Council declared a climate emergency declaration through Resolution 2020-09.  The resolution accelerates sustained and meaningful action to address the climate emergency.  It identifies eight specific actions.  Action 7 advances the goals of the 2018 Climate Action and Adaptation Plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.  A Carbon Neutrality Plan (CNP) was drafted in response to the declaration.  The draft CNP identities a path to reach carbon neutrality. It was developed with the assistance of the Flagstaff community, Climate Action and Adaptation Steering Committee, and technical experts.

To achieve carbon neutrality Flagstaff will need to focus on the following seven target areas for action:

1. Clean Electricity
2. Reduced Building Energy Use 
3. Building Fuel Switching
4. Decreased Dependence on Cars
5. Electric Mobility
6. Sustainable Consumption and Waste Management
7. Sequestration, Certificates and Offsets

Staff are providing City Council with two scenarios to consider for the final plan.  Scenarios A and B both arrive at carbon neutrality by 2030 and use similar strategies.  Scenario A is more heavily focused on local investments and reductions in emissions from energy and transportation, while scenario B is more heavily focused on carbon sequestration.  Both scenarios require bold action, strong and consistent commitment, and funding.

The draft Carbon Neutrality Plan is comprised of a vision, an approach to carbon neutrality, target areas for action, and a plan for implementation. The overarching goals for the plan are to:
 

1. Achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.
2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent (scenario A)/ 33 percent (scenario B)
3. Prepare Flagstaff's communities, systems, and resources to be more resilient to climate change impacts.
4. Address climate change in a manner that prioritizes those impacted and ensures the costs and benefits of climate adaptation and mitigation are equitably distributed.

To achieve carbon neutrality Flagstaff will need to focus on the following seven target areas for action: 

1. Cleaner Electricity: Flagstaff will obtain its electricity from sources that do not produce greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Reducing Building Energy Use: Flagstaff will need to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heating, cooling and powering buildings.
3. Building Fuel Switching: Flagstaff will shift building fuel sources from fossil fuels to electricity on everything from water heaters and stoves to industrial processes, enabling us to take advantage of the emissions reduction pathway unlocked by electricity being cleaner than fossil fuels today, and continuing to get cleaner over time.
4. Decreased Dependence on Cars: Flagstaff will depend far less on cars, reducing vehicles miles traveled (VMT) and shifting many more trips to walking, biking and the bus.
5. Electric Mobility: Flagstaff will embrace the electrification of mobility options, shifting to vehicle-replacing e-bikes and bike share, electrifying our busses and taking advantage of the rapidly evolving vehicle market
6. Reduced Emissions from Consumption and Waste: Flagstaff will move towards sustainable consumption, divert more materials from the landfill through reuse and recycling, and then reduce emissions from the landfill.
7. Sequestration, Certificates and Offsets: Flagstaff will achieve carbon neutrality by measuring the remaining community emissions produced each year, and then balancing with an equivalent amount of removal through negative emissions initiatives such as carbon sequestration.

To implement the goals of the Carbon Neutrality Plan, the City and Flagstaff community will need to: 

• Dramatically increase its ambition to combat climate change through bold action.
• Ensure this mobilization effort is City-wide, spanning all sectors of the Flagstaff economy and community.
• Prioritize appropriate funding for implementation of climate goals and action.
• Engage and educate our residents about the current climate emergency and inspiring action, especially Flagstaff’s youth.
• Strive for full community participation and leadership by residents of Flagstaff, community organizations and other allies.
• Keep the concerns of vulnerable communities, BIPOC, and those experiencing poverty central to all transition and climate emergency mobilization efforts, and facilitate their active participation in this work.
• Develop and reinforce respectful collaborations with surrounding Tribal nations, traditional agricultural communities, regional governments, the State of Arizona, and the U.S. Government.
• Prioritize adaptation and mitigation in all City decision-making processes.
• Prioritize the creation of high-quality, good-paying jobs with comprehensive benefits for those who will be impacted by this transition. 

Staff are seeking direction from the City Council on which scenario (A or B) to incorporate into the Carbon Neutrality Plan.  Scenario A strives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent, heavily focusing strategies on the energy and transportation
target areas.  Scenario B reduces strategies in the transportation target area and increases the need for carbon sequestration/carbon offsetting.  Both scenarios require bold action, strong and consistent commitment,and funding.

With direction from the City Council staff will return with the final Carbon Neutrality Plan for formal adoption on April 6, 2021.
 

Scenario A		Scenario B
On Road Transit:  VMT set to be held at ACTUAL 2019 levels [797M total; 2.35M/day (total); 1.59M/day (internal)]		On Road Transit VMT allowed to increase 7% from ACTUAL 2019 values [853M total/year; 2.52M/day (total); 1.76M/day (internal)]; 7% reduction from BAU
30% Remaining Miles electric (or zero tailpipe)		15% Remaining Miles electric (or zero tailpipe)
2000 home solar systems installed (5kW each) for 10MW distributed residential		1000 home solar systems installed (5kW each) for 5MW distributed residential.
Includes 50MW Solar at RGR and 10MW Solar at Landfill - assumes 25MW goes to offset COF, and then APS allows half of the remaining solar (35MW/2) to be attributed to the commercial/residential sectors at 7.5/10 split.  (This does include some policy optimism - that APS and ACC will allow)		Includes 50MW Solar at RGR and 10MW Solar at Landfill - assume 25MW goes to offset COF.  Remaining unavailable to community attribution unless/until policy changes with ACC/APS.
12,500 Total Residential Retrofits - ~50% of existing homes		6,250 Total Residential Retrofits - ~25% of existing homes
25% of all commercial accounts (NOT COF or NAU) get a deep EE retrofit		10% of all commercial accounts (NOT COF or NAU) get a deep EE retrofit
Commercial Sector Brings on 10MW Solar by 2030		Commercial Sector Brings on 5MW Solar by 2030
Industrial Sector Brings on 5MW Solar by 2030		Industrial Sector Brings on 0MW Solar by 2030
NAU 50% Net Zero Buildings by 2030		NAU 50% Net Zero Buildings by 2030
COF 100% RE by 2025 (likely to require 25-30MW); + EE and FS across the municipality by 2030		COF 100% RE by 2025 (likely to require 25-30MW); + EE and FS across the municipality by 2030
15% of commercial accounts/establishments electrify (not including COF or NAU)		7.5% of commercial accounts/establishments electrify (not including COF or NAU)
Landfill gas collection and flare online		Landfill gas collection and flare online