| AGENDA ITEM #: 1. DATE: 06/07/2021 AI #:239 |
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CITY COUNCIL ACTION REPORT
| SUBJECT: | REVIEW OF ESTRELLA FALLS MARKET STUDY |
| STAFF PRESENTER(S): | Julie Karins, City Manager |
OTHER PRESENTER(S):
Judie A. Scalise, ESI Corporation
Jeffrey M. Denzak, Swaback Partners
Jeffrey M. Denzak, Swaback Partners
SUMMARY
Review of the Estrella Falls Market Study
STIPULATIONS
NONE
FISCAL IMPACT
NONE
BACKGROUND AND PREVIOUS ACTIONS
In previous conversations with Council, Council directed staff to perform a study to determine what the possible market-based development options are at the Estrella Falls site, which was previously planned as a regional mall site.
STAFF ANALYSIS
The Estrella Falls site consists of approximately 129 acres located east of the Civic Square and GSQ sites that are currently under construction. Staff engaged two firms, ESI Corporation and Swaback Partners.
ESI Corporation was commissioned to perform a market analysis to examine existing and future market demand for retail and office space. Based on the outcome of the market analysis, three potential development scenarios with varying degrees of density have been prepared. A fiscal analysis estimating the tax revenue for each of the three development scenarios provides an understanding of the potential benefit to the City. To aid in understanding how Estrella Falls could develop, four comparable mixed-use development projects, or precedents, were identified and agreed to by City staff. A comparison of the socio-demographics within a defined commute shed was prepared to showcase the economic dynamics of these successful mixed-use projects as compared to Estrella Falls. ESI prepared a market demand analysis for retail and office uses at the site. Based on the findings of the market demand analysis, three development scenarios for Estrella Falls have been prepared, each offering a differing mix of land uses and density. The three scenarios range from high intensity walkable developments to lower intensity employment.
To visually represent the results of the market analysis, Swaback Partners was commissioned to prepare a visual representation demonstrating how these mixed-used projects could develop. Along with this visual representation of the market analysis, Swaback identified “key ingredients” of these projects, such as right sizing the blocks, providing a mix of land uses, incorporating open space and providing great pedestrian linkages, among other characteristics that are essential to achieving economic success.
ESI Corporation was commissioned to perform a market analysis to examine existing and future market demand for retail and office space. Based on the outcome of the market analysis, three potential development scenarios with varying degrees of density have been prepared. A fiscal analysis estimating the tax revenue for each of the three development scenarios provides an understanding of the potential benefit to the City. To aid in understanding how Estrella Falls could develop, four comparable mixed-use development projects, or precedents, were identified and agreed to by City staff. A comparison of the socio-demographics within a defined commute shed was prepared to showcase the economic dynamics of these successful mixed-use projects as compared to Estrella Falls. ESI prepared a market demand analysis for retail and office uses at the site. Based on the findings of the market demand analysis, three development scenarios for Estrella Falls have been prepared, each offering a differing mix of land uses and density. The three scenarios range from high intensity walkable developments to lower intensity employment.
To visually represent the results of the market analysis, Swaback Partners was commissioned to prepare a visual representation demonstrating how these mixed-used projects could develop. Along with this visual representation of the market analysis, Swaback identified “key ingredients” of these projects, such as right sizing the blocks, providing a mix of land uses, incorporating open space and providing great pedestrian linkages, among other characteristics that are essential to achieving economic success.