Consider Proposal for Additional Traffic Analysis in The COR

As part of the AUAR, and under the approved proposal dated February 6th, 2012, the HRA authorized an initial effort to analyze the traffic impacts of the revised development plan for The COR. In that proposal, Landform and the traffic consultant remodeled the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) created from the revised development plan, compared the results to the previous model, and reviewed the previous mitigation measures for adequacy.  

At that time, we identified an increase in trips generated by the new plan, but worked to revise the projections as aggressively as reasonable to get to a point where we could agree that the existing mitigation measures remained sufficient in the updated plan.

The AUAR update is currently being completed and will be under review over the coming months.  Of concern at the time the traffic components were underway, was the reduction in housing units necessary to lower traffic counts to an acceptable level. Subsequent to that effort, the Met Council has expressed concern over the proposed reduction in housing units, and suggested we take another look at the proposed plan and review the potential for additional units to minimize the reduction from the previous plan.

To accomplish this, the development team must revisit the density, unit types, and assumptions in traffic counts made as part of that effort. The initial proposal for the traffic component of the AUAR is attached and allowed for approximately $13,000 for the base analysis and an estimate of approximately $40,000 additional costs if a full review of the traffic study was necessary.  We have completed the base analysis for that phase.  

To adequately assess the unit counts possible in The COR, we must complete several tasks:

• Revisit uses and densities in COR 1
• Consider shift from retail to mixed-use in the area between COR 1 and the retail area (W30)
• Consider a more detailed analysis of the internal capture
• Re-run trip generation based on the revised TAZ
• Re-assess the impacts and mitigation measures in the current AUAR

The internal capture rate we used was aggressive, but typical for suburban shopping malls. Since the initial analysis, there has been a new methodology developed to better assess internal capture, which is the rate at which visitors make multiple stops within the project, reducing the need for adjacent roadways to handle the total trips.  For instance, if the traffic manual determines that a building generates 10 trips per hour, and we use the generic capture rate of 20%, the actual trips generated are calculated at 8 trips per hour.  The development team believes with the recent additions of transit and very high density at the heart of the project, The COR has the potential to see a much larger rate of internal capture at full buildout if the current growth remains consistent.  Without a more detailed study, we cannot depart from the standard (aggressive) rate of 20%.

The development team recommends the HRA approve $5,000 of the optional $40,000 budget for additional traffic analysis and direct the team to complete the proposed tasks necessary to more accurately assess potential unit counts.

HRA Budget/Future Land Sales

Approve up to $5,000 of the $40,000 optional budget for traffic analysis in The COR.