PLANNING COMMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (EDA): Review Preliminary Metropolitan Council Forecasts

(Anticipated Start Time = 8:30 p.m.)

The purpose of this case is to seek initial policy direction in order to develop a Statement of Policy to officially respond to the Metropolitan Council's Preliminary Forecasts.

Minnesota Statutes Chapter 473 provides direction to the Metropolitan Council in regards to the foundation for regional planning. This is the chapter that provides guidance for communities within the metropolitan area to prepare Comprehensive Plans. The Regional Planning Cycle updates once every ten (10) years following the completion of the US Census.

The next stage in the Regional Planning Cycle is to prepare the 2040 Regional Development Framework. This task is completed by the Metropolitan Council and is currently underway. The current process is also known as Thrive MSP 2040. Included in the Development Framework are goals, policies, and implementation strategies for the region as a whole. The Development Framework also includes forecasts for future household, population, and employment growth. The planning period for the Development Framework will be through 2040. These forecasts and policies are important to review as they will have effects on a number of aspects for the City; development of the Comprehensive Plan Update, financing for regional systems (roads, parks, trails, sewers, etc.).

The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts for the year 2040. The Metropolitan Council has not yet released revised forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030 yet. The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts in advance of the official review process to give local communities a chance to comment and allow the forecasting model to be re-calibrated. Ramsey's preliminary forecasts are as follows:
 

	Year (2040)
Households	12,500
Population	28,400
Employment	7,000

For comparison purposes, existing estimates are as follows:
 

	Year (2012)
Households	8,134
Population	23,946
Employment	5,303

The preliminary forecasts do represent continued growth and development within Ramsey through 2040. However, these forecasts do represent a reduction in forecasted growth when compared to the City's current Comprehensive Plan and growth forecasts. In response, Metropolitan Council Staff has indicated that existing forecasts in the current Comprehensive Plan would be honored; however, those ultimate growth forecasts would be anticipated to be experienced at a date beyond 2040 instead of at 2030. The existing forecasts from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan are as follows:
 

	Year (2030)
Households	15,900
Population	42,500
Employment	12,050

There could be a number of factors that have led to the revised forecasts, including previous economic conditions, changes in regional policies, changes to model assumptions and software, etc. Staff has included a number of presentations prepared by the Metropolitan Council as background on demographics and assumptions that framed the initial preparation of the preliminary forecasts.

Staff is attending a Local Officials Workshop on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 to better understand the policies, assumptions, and technical components that went into the forecast model. Until those factors are better understood, it may be premature to develop an official/final Statement of Policy related to the forecasts. Staff has prepared a document to serve as a response. This is a preliminary draft to frame discussion. The discussion this evening is to better understand the policy direction of the City to refine this document. Responses to the preliminary forecasts are due by December 1, 2013. Following that date, the model will be re-calibrated and re-run. At that time, the forecasts will be sent for official comments by local communities.

The City could host a process similar to what was used to develop the Future Land Use Map for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update to help formulate a portion of the City's forecast recommendations (total capacity). This would focus on the mapping exercise that was completed at the end of that process. However, it would be unlikely that this process could be completed by the December 1 deadline. This could be completed during the official comment period, however.

During the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update process completed during 2008-2010, a major comment was in regards to the growth forecasts appearing to be too aggressive and not reflective of the true market. Additionally, some participants felt that the forecasts were driving the development of the Future Land Use Map, versus the Future Land Use Map helping to inform the process of developing the forecasts. However, at that time, the City was unable to adjust forecasts as low as originally desired, as the forecasts had already been adopted in advance of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. This is a key factor as to why the City should remain involved in this current forecast development process.

The most recent City documents that addressed growth forecasts were the 2012 Comprehensive Sanitary Sewer and Water Studies. These studies acknowledged that the current forecasts would not be experienced due to the economic conditions at that time. These Studies assumed an average, flat-rate household growth of 260 new households per year. This assumption was a simple assumption, using a combination of historical average growth rates and previous comprehensive plan assumptions. In comparison, the preliminary 2040 forecasts would be an average growth rate of 150 households per year. NOTE: Staff is not assuming a linear growth rate; these averages are used for illustrative/comparison purposes only.

Before making a recommendation as to what forecast is most appropriate for Ramsey, Staff would like to finish the meeting with the Metropolitan Council on October 29, 2013. At that time, Staff will forward a recommendation to the November Planning Commission Meeting. The alternatives for recommendation include the following:
 

1. Metropolitan Council Preliminary 2040 Forecasts as presented
2. Existing City of Ramsey Forecasts (2012)
3. In Between Metropolitan Council Preliminary 2040 Forecasts and Existing City of Ramsey Forecasts (2012)
4. Other

It is noted that, regardless of what the official forecast becomes, the City does have the ability to request a Comprehensive Plan Amendment if actual growth experienced exceeds the forecasted amount. In addition, as noted above, it appears that the Metropolitan Council will honor the total capacity of households, population, and employment from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan (existing). However, if it is going to be the policy of the City that it expects and/or encourages growth at a higher rate than an average of 150 houesholds per year, that the City's Statement of Policy should recommend a change to the preliminary forecasts. There is additional time and process associated with Comprehensive Plan Amendments if the City wants to adjust those in the future.

As previously stated, a number of factors will have an impact on future growth. For purposes of this preliminary review, Staff has focused on two (2) major topics that could restrict future growth if left un-addressed:
 

1. Transportation Capacity (Highway 10/Highway 47)
2. Water Supply Capacity (Groundwater Supply/Surface Water Supply)

Transportation Capacity
Staff recommends that the City comment on the capacity of Highway 10 and Highway 47 as part of the response to the preliminary forecasts. Although future growth forecasts are lower than what is in the current Comprehensive Plan, the City should acknowledge that both systems currently have capacity and congestion issues. Staff recommends that it is important that regional policies address capacity of these systems, even if no growth were experienced, based on existing levels of service. (NOTE: the current Comprehensive Plan classified Highway 10 as Level of Service 'F' at current levels over the entire stretch through Ramsey.  Level of Service scoring ranges from A-F, with F being the lowest score possible).

Water Supply Capacity
The City fully acknowledges the need to address water supply issues for future growth. The City currently derives its municipal water supply from a series of groundwater wells and pump houses. Based on water supply availability and historical usage data, it will be important to continue to address water conservation and alternative supply issues in the near future.

Staff recommends that the City comment on the City's previous policy statements for a need to address water supply issues on a regional issue, not as a local issue. Staff's preliminary analysis of documents used in the preparation of the preliminary forecasts indicate at least a note that this is an issue that will need to be addressed on a regional level. Staff will need additional time to fully analyze to what level this may occur.

Responses to the Preliminary Forecasts are due by December 1, 2013 in order to be included with the 're-calibrated' forecasts. Once re-calibrated, these forecasts will be the foundation for the development of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update. The Regional Framework will be developed based on these forecasts through 2014. The Regional Framework will then lead to System Plans (Land Use, Transportation, Wastewater, Parks and Open Space). The System Plans then lead to Local System Statements that will be the driver of the City's 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update and will be available in late 2015. The 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update will be due December 31, 2018.

Review of the Metropolitan Council's Preliminary Forecasts is being handled as part of normal Staff duties.

The responsible parties for this case are the Community Development (Development Services Manager) and Planning Commission.

The desired outcome of this case is to seek initial policy direction in order to develop a Statement of Policy as an official response to the Metropolitan Council's 2040 Preliminary Forecasts. Based on discussion this evening, Staff will develop this Statement of Policy and bring forward to the November Planning Commission.

To best assist Staff in formulating a recommendation, Staff is seeking general policy direction as to how the City should approach future growth:

1. Actively pursue growth and economic development opportunities
2. React to development proposals as they come forward
3. Assume aggressive growth rates
4. Assume average growth rates over the past ten (10) years, or
5. Assume conservative growth rates with the ability to react to additional growth if experienced