Consider Response to Metropolitan Council 2040 Preliminary Forecasts

Minnesota Statutes Chapter 473 provides direction to the Metropolitan Council in regard to the foundation for regional planning. This is the chapter that provides guidance for communities within the metropolitan area to prepare Comprehensive Plans. The Regional Planning Cycle updates once every ten (10) years following the completion of the US Census.

The next stage in the Regional Planning Cycle is to prepare the 2040 Regional Development Framework. This task is completed by the Metropolitan Council and is currently underway. The current process is also known as Thrive MSP 2040. Included in the Development Framework are goals, policies, and implementation strategies for the region as a whole. The Development Framework also includes forecasts for future household, population, and employment growth. The planning period for the Development Framework will be through 2040. These forecasts and policies are important to review as they will have effects on a number of aspects for the City; development of the Comprehensive Plan Update, financing for regional systems (roads, parks, trails, sewers, etc.).

The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts for the year 2040. The Metropolitan Council has not yet released revised forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts in advance of the official review process to give local communities a chance to comment and allow the forecasting model to be re-calibrated. Ramsey's preliminary forecasts are as follows:
 

	Year (2040)
Households	12,500
Population	28,400
Employment	7,000

For comparison purposes, existing estimates are as follows:
 

	Year (2012)
Households	8,134
Population	23,946
Employment	5,303

The preliminary forecasts do represent continued growth and development within Ramsey through 2040. However, these forecasts do represent a reduction in forecasted growth when compared to the City's current Comprehensive Plan and growth forecasts. In response, Metropolitan Council Staff has indicated that existing forecasts in the current Comprehensive Plan would be honored; however, those ultimate growth forecasts would be anticipated to be experienced at a date beyond 2040 instead of at 2030. The existing forecasts from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan are as follows:
 

	At Fully Developed
Households	15,900
Population	42,500
Employment	12,050

There could be a number of factors that have led to the revised forecasts, including previous economic conditions, changes in regional policies, changes to model assumptions and software, etc. Included in the agenda packet are a number of presentations prepared by the Metropolitan Council as background on demographics and assumptions that framed the initial preparation of the preliminary forecasts.

Staff attended a Local Officials Workshop on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 to better understand the policies, assumptions, and technical components that went into the forecast model. Responses to the preliminary forecasts are due by December 1, 2013. Following that date, the model will be re-calibrated and re-run. At that time, the forecasts will be sent for official comments by local communities. There will be future opportunities to further refine these forecasts.

Staff recommends that the City host a process similar to what was used to develop the Future Land Use Map for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update to help formulate a portion of the City's forecast recommendations (total capacity). This process was also recently used for small area land use planning at the former municipal center as well as the 167th Avenue node at TH 47. This process would focus on the mapping exercise that was completed at the end of the previous Comprehensive Plan Update. Although this process would not be completed by the December 1 deadline, it could be completed during the official comment period. The intent of this process is to have the Future Land Use Map inform our response to the Forecasts versus the Forecasts inform our decisions on the Future Land Use Map.

During the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update process completed during 2008-2010, a major comment was in regards to the growth forecasts appearing to be too aggressive and not reflective of the true market. Additionally, some participants felt that the forecasts were driving the development of the Future Land Use Map, versus the Future Land Use Map helping to inform the process of developing the forecasts. However, at that time, the City was unable to adjust forecasts as low as originally desired, as the forecasts had already been adopted in advance of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. This is a key factor as to why the City should remain involved in this current forecast development process.

The most recent City documents that addressed growth forecasts were the 2012 Comprehensive Sanitary Sewer and Water Studies. These studies acknowledged that the current forecasts would not be experienced by the year 2030 due to the economic conditions at that time. These studies assumed an average, flat-rate household growth of 260 new households per year. This assumption was a simple assumption, using a combination of historical average growth rates and previous comprehensive plan assumptions. In comparison, the preliminary 2040 forecasts would be an average growth rate of 150 households per year. NOTE: Staff is not assuming a linear growth rate; these averages are used for illustrative/comparison purposes only.

The Planning Commission has recommended that the City focus equally on population as well as household forecasts. The Preliminary Forecasts appear to be more focused on the number of Households, with Population forecasts to be finalized at a later date. As the report will note below, several key factors and investments will utilize Population Forecasts in prioritizing goals and investments. Included in extrapolating population growth from Household Forecasts, Household Size (persons per household) should be refined based on 2010 Census figures.

It is noted that, regardless of what the official forecast becomes, the City does have the ability to request a Comprehensive Plan Amendment if actual growth experienced exceeds the forecasted amount. In addition, as noted above, it appears that the Metropolitan Council will honor the total capacity of households, population, and employment from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan (existing). However, if it is going to be the policy of the City that it expects and/or encourages growth at a higher rate than an average of 150 households per year, that the City's response should recommend a change to the preliminary forecasts. There is additional time and process associated with Comprehensive Plan Amendments if the City wants to adjust those in the future.

As previously stated, a number of factors will have an impact on future growth. For purposes of this preliminary review, Staff has focused on two (2) major topics that could restrict future growth if left un-addressed:
 

1. Transportation Capacity (Highway 10/Highway 47)
2. Water Supply Capacity (Groundwater Supply/Surface Water Supply)

Transportation Capacity
The current draft response comments on the capacity of Highway 10 and Highway 47 . Although future growth forecasts are lower than what is in the current Comprehensive Plan, the City should acknowledge that both systems currently have capacity and congestion issues. The Planning Commission recommended that it is important that regional policies address capacity of these systems, even if no growth were experienced, based on existing levels of service. (NOTE: the current Comprehensive Plan classified Highway 10 as Level of Service 'F' at current levels over the entire stretch through Ramsey. Level of Service scoring ranges from A-F, with F being the lowest score possible).

Water Supply Capacity
Also included in the draft response is a comment on water supply issues for future growth. The City currently derives its municipal water supply from a series of groundwater wells and pump houses. Based on water supply availability and historical usage data, it will be important to continue to address water conservation and alternative supply issues in the near future. The current draft response calls for a need to address water supply issues as a regional issue, not as a local issue.

Timeframe

Responses to the Preliminary Forecasts are due by December 1, 2013 in order to be included with the 're-calibrated' forecasts. Once re-calibrated, these forecasts will be the foundation for the development of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update. The Regional Framework will be developed based on these forecasts through 2014. The Regional Framework will then lead to System Plans (Land Use, Transportation, Wastewater, Parks and Open Space). The System Plans then lead to Local System Statements that will be the driver of the City's 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update and will be available in late 2015. The 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update will be due December 31, 2018.

Notification is not required.

Alternative #1. Approve the draft response as drafted. The draft response has been reviewed as part of a Joint Work Session with the City Council, Planning Commission, and EDA. In addition, the draft response was reviewed in greater detail with the Planning Commission and noted with the EDA. The draft response appears in line with current City policy directives.

Alternative #2. Do not respond to 2040 Preliminary Forecasts. Based on feedback from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update, Staff does not recommend this alternative. As noted above, multiple comments were received as part of that previous process that the community desired to review forecasts as part of the City's Comprehensive Plan Update. However, if that is the desire of the community, this current process is the appropriate time to raise such comments.

Alternative #3. Amend the draft response. This alternative would be based on discussion.

Review of the 2040 Preliminary Forecasts are being handled as part of normal Staff duties.

The Planning Commission recommended approval of the attached response, with amendments to reflect a desire to more accurately reflect population growth rather than a focus on number of households. The response was also reviewed by the Economic Development Authority (EDA), which did not express any concern with the proposed approach.

Motion to approve the attached response to the Metropolitan Council 2040 Preliminary Forecasts.