Traffic congestion on US 180 during peak winter activity is a historical problem with multi-hour delays for recreationists returning to town from snow play areas and the Arizona Snowbowl.  The traffic backup creates concerns for emergency vehicle access to the corridor and makes residents of the corridor feel trapped in their own homes.  The problem typically occurs on holiday weekends with good snow conditions and fresh snow.  Implementation of a traffic signal timing plan in 2011 resolved most of the traffic congestion that season and for the following two seasons.  This past holiday break saw the evening traffic congestion return and introduced a new phenomenon of morning congestion during both the Christmas and New Year's weekends.  The backup extended to I-17 creating potentially dangerous conditions.  This report describes those conditions and the status of the implementation strategies developed in the 2011 study developed by FMPO in cooperation with regional agencies and businesses.  Active pursuit of strategies may see some read for the 2015-2016 season.

Implementation of additional strategies will have a range of financial impacts:

• Thousands of dollars for additional signs;
• tens of thousands of dollars for new timing plans
• tens of thousands of dollars for an AM radio broadcast; plus an annual maintenance or licensing fee
• thousands of dollars to manage dual, southbound right turn lanes on Milton and millions of dollars to make permanent improvements
• Tens of thousands of dollars for transit service plus considerable coordination efforts with vendors and concessionaires and/or millions of dollars to widen shoulders on US 180 for a transit bypass lane (and emergency vehicle access)

The City was an active part of the US 180 Winter Congestion Study in 2011 and the Council heard several reports on the study.  Alternative or dispersed snow play areas is an implementation strategy and previous councils have heard reports on locations in the city and region.

The Council may wish to direct City staff or request the FMPO to pursue further implementation strategies.  The following is a list of what has been done and what additional activities might take place:

Coordination: The Winter Activity Task Force did not meet prior to the holiday week.  A coordination meeting was held among member agencies public safety staff and Coconino County Public Works.

Traffic operations: The signal timing plan was in operation during the entire period.  It may be possible to improve it, extend the hours it operates, and develop a morning signal timing plan for the same days.  It may be possible to place a temporary signal at the US 180 / Snowbowl Road intersection to equitably distribute traffic between those two roads.

Traffic signing for alternate routes:  No additions to the existing alternate route signing were in place.  ADOT has developed new signs for additional locations and others were proposed in the 2011 Study.  They are fold-up signs to be displayed during critical periods.  For some visitors recreating north of Snowbowl Road continuing north to 64 and returning to I-17 via Williams may be a time advantage in particularly crowded times.  This does represent a potential economic loss to businesses in Flagstaff.

Early departure incentives: No incentives were offered, but USFS personnel report that Wing Mountain concessionaires would use a loud speaker starting at 2:00 p.m. to encourage people to leave early. USFS also encouraged Wing Mountain to stay open until 5:00 p.m. to ease the demand at 4:00 p.m.  Some in the business community express concern that such actions diminish the visitor experience.  Incentives may be appealing to some.

Visitor Information: Information flier was updated for 2014-2015 with improved directions to Ft. Tuthill, Mormon Lake and Happy Jack.  The Visitor Center, Chamber and Convention & Visitors Bureau reported that visitor contacts were not higher than normal though all received calls or emails complaining about the traffic.  Portable signs were in place on I-17 but the overhead variable message signs were not in use.  Development of an AM Radio message in conjunction with signing has been proposed.  Again, some in the business community have expressed concerns about the type of message sent.

Alternate Snow Play Areas:  Ft. Tuthill was open with the cinder hill play area in place.  They did receive many phone calls from Phoenix.  No visitation numbers are collected but it did appear busier than usual.  Officers reported random snow play along most regional highways.

Travel Demand Management: This was not offered in the original report but represents an opportunity to work with area residents and employers to encourage people to work from home, leave work early, take the bus or take other measures to help ease travel demand.

Background
In 2011 the member agencies of the FMPO requested that a study be conducted to evaluate the congestion experienced on US 180 during peak winter activity and to recommend mitigation solutions.  Interviews and data indicated that the worst congestion historically occurred during holidays, on a weekend, with good snow conditions and recent snowfall with the worst conditions occurring when snowfall exceeded ADOT’s ability to clear the shoulders on US 180 in a timely manner.

Modeling of the corridor indicated that traffic signal timing was the principle cause of congestion followed by a lack of capacity in the corridor.  Tracking of blue tooth signals in vehicles indicated little time advantage to the use of alternate routes and very little use of alternate routes from US 180 to I-17 southbound.  The study was conducted in cooperation with the Winter Activity Task Force spearheaded by the Coconino County Parks Department.

The study recommended short, mid and long-term solutions to be implemented as conditions indicated.  The following table lists these strategies and their respective support from the public:

Table 3: Near-, Mid-, and Long-Term Strategies Point Totals

	MindMixer	Public Meeting		Combined
Near-Term Strategies	Points	Points		Total Points
Early Departure Incentives	57	59		116
Traffic Signal Timing	87	82		169
Traffic Signing Plan	51	72		123
Traveler Information System	67	74		141
Mid-Term Strategies	Points	Points		Total
Dispersed Snow Play Sites	94	99		193
Managed Lane	51	62		113
Transit	74	60		134
U.S. 180 Winter Recreation Parking Pass	25	18		43
Long-Term Strategies	Points	Points		Total
Alternate Route to I-40	72	63		135
Cable Propelled Transit	19	9		28
Intersection Improvements	31	71		102
Widen U.S. 180	29	50		79

Magnitude of and Effects of Congestion
Snowbowl reported employees remaining until 8 p.m. waiting for traffic to clear.  Ski rental operations reported staying open to 9 or 10 p.m. waiting for customers to return skis.

• Friday, January 2 and Saturday, January 3:  Northbound traffic backed up on to I-17 (some reports back to John Wesley Powell).  Corroborated by ADOT District and DPS.
• Saturday, January 3: 1.5 to 1.75 hours from town (speculation) to Flagstaff Nordic Center.   USFS Survey.
• Saturday, January 3: 2 hours from Flagstaff Nordic Center to USFS Ranger Station on 89 (USFS employee)
• Friday, January 2 and Saturday, January 3: 3 hours from Snowbowl to town with standing traffic up to 3 miles up Snowbowl Road. (Snowbowl employees/USFS communication)

Gas stations at Plaza, W. Route 66, and Forest reported record-breaking or double the amount of business.  All businesses reported excessive traffic with some reporting customers having difficulty entering their site.

Snow Play Participation
The numbers reported below are in keeping with the historical counts from 2009-2011 reported in the congestion study.
Arizona Snowbowl Visitation:

• Thursday-Saturday: 3000+; Saturday 3800 (all reported as normal), capacity reached at 10:30 a.m.

Wing Mountain Snow Play Visitation:

• Friday (Jan. 2) = 1045 cars / Saturday (Jan. 3) = 988 cars / Sunday (Jan. 4) = 994 cars
• Parking lot was at capacity at 10:30/11:00 a.m. each day with little turnover. Earlier than past years.

Flagstaff Nordic Center (FNC)

• Reported as not reaching capacity most days.  1/1 – 290; 1/2 – 642; 1/3 – 326; 1/4 - 137

Crowley Pit Parking Area – about 1 mile past Flagstaff Nordic Center (Visitation):

• The site holds about 50-75 cars depending on conditions.
• About 275-325 cars each day.
• The parking lot was at capacity around 11:00/11:30 a.m. each day with slow turnover.

Informal Snow Play

• Informal reports from law enforcement that visitors were taking advantage of any patch of snow in which to play on US 180, SR 89a, and I-17

Potentially Contributing Factors
Most of these are anecdotal, some are fact based.

• Maricopa County population increase: Up about 200,000 people since 2011
• Holiday weekend traffic at points on I-17 up 6%-16% between 2011/12 and 2013/14.
• Holiday weekend traffic north of Snowbowl on US 180 up 8% between 2011/12 and 2013/14.
• Accidents: Several reported, but none were reported as significantly impacting traffic
• Local population and related traffic growth: Up 2,700 people between 2011 and 2013.  Traffic on US 180 between Beale and Mead up 14%-25% between 2012 and 2013.  Traffic on Humphreys between Dale and Columbus up 6% and 4% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Pending Information and/or Data

• ADOT – updated continuous traffic counts from I-17 at various locations and US 180 north of Snowbowl for the time period in question
• Flagstaff Convention & Visitors Bureau – Occupancy data for December 2014 and January 2015 and two prior years for comparison
• Flagstaff Sales Tax office – sales tax receipts for December 2014 and January 2015 and two prior years for comparison
• Grand Canyon National Park visitation at the South Entrance
• Response from Mormon Lake Lodge
• Response from Happy Jack Lodge

Economic Development:  The winter season is traditionally slower for tourism with hotel occupancy dropping from 85% in the summer to 60% in the winter.  Winter activity such as skiing and snow play, especially if more predictable due to snow-making, can raise that winter participation rate and make fiscal planning more predictable for many firms in the industry.  Excessive traffic - especially if it becomes the norm - may depress economic activity for businesses outside the hospitality sector as local residents and shoppers from outside the region choose to stay home or take their business elsewhere.

Public Safety:  If traffic congestion persists, then access for emergency service vehicles to patients and/or victims in the corridor will be compromised.  Contingency practices should be developed.  One such idea is to have EMS vehicles prepared to take patients northwest on US 180 to areas that can be reached by helicopter.  This, of course, is weather dependent.  Alternatives such as a bypass or widened shoulders are expensive.

Congestion as a public cost:  Many communities with depressed economies seek congestion.  Busy streets and sidewalks are signs of success.  NAU, another economic driver, produces extreme congestion during graduation.  A notable difference is that much of its impacts are contained on campus and the commercial corridors.  There may be value in a public discussion about what is an acceptable level or duration of congestion during these events.

Rough costs associated with various implementation strategies:

Use of Variable Message Signs (VMS): not known at this time

Installation of AM Radio:  $15,000-20,000 plus annual maintenance

Alternative Routes:  $1.8 million per lane at 6 miles = $20 million more or less

Widened Shoulders: $600,000 per "shoulder" mile at 4-5 miles.  One-side = $3 million more or less

Managed Lanes:  $500-600/day

Dispersed Snow Play Areas: $200,000-$1,000,000 depending on level of improvement

Design, environmental clearances and construction management fees will add an additional 35-50%

Mitigating traffic impacts during peak events creates a better experience for visitors and a less inconvenient and safer situation for residents and businesses alike.

Certainly the economic activity within the hospitality sector created by snow play helps to balance the peak summer season and allow businesses to create revenue from their otherwise idle capital assets.  It also brings in sales tax revenue to the region (sales tax and hotel occupancy for December and January are not yet available.  A significant number of people are employed in the hospitality sector and increased activity will benefit their wages and tips.

The visits from Sonora, Mexico were noted and this represents expanded tourism opportunities and could translate to business activities in other sectors.

The availability of snow play areas and Snow Bowl add to the recreational activities in which area residents may participate.

Excessive traffic is detrimental to some businesses and several reported the difficulty their customers experienced entering and existing their businesses.

During extreme traffic congestion residents of the corridor experience difficult entering and exiting their neighborhoods.  This represents delayed or deferred economic activity.

Inform - Outreach to the public continues through the distribution of winter activity maps and advertisement.  Some strategies expand the "inform" type of outreach.

Involve - the original 2011 study had extensive on-line participation and two well-attended public meetings in which participants were involved in identifying problems, developing solutions and prioritizing them.

Managed lanes:  It is possible to manage traffic lanes or Humphreys or possibly Beaver to allow for dual right turns onto westbound E. Route 66.  This is only effective if the downstream traffic is cleared so well that the right turn at Humphreys becomes the bottleneck.

Transit or Shuttle Services: The successful implementation of transit services geared at relieving congestion requires considerable interagency cooperation.  A base parking lot is required.  No city lots are sufficient.  The most likely candidate is an NAU lot which may be available since most peak winter events are during scheduled holidays.  In order to reduce congestion is requires the elimination of parking at the snow play and ski destinations.  This would likely including charging for parking at those locations, too.  Adding transit or shuttle vehicles to the traffic stream without removing vehicles does not resolve the problem.  Given the apparent increasing demand for snow play opportunities and the evident lack of capacity in the US 180 corridor some means of metering traffic into the corridor in addition to the transit services may be warranted.

Capital improvements:  Major intersection improvements at Humphreys/Rte 66; widened shoulders on US 180 and some other physical changes can assist this condition.  The wide shoulders could be used by transit to jump the queue and make emergency vehicle access better.  It likely requires more aggressive enforcement to keep the shoulders clear.